MotionBlind Probing the Illusion of Motion Understanding in Video‑LLMs

NeurIPS 2026 Workshop on World Models in Physical AI · under review

Dhairya Bhatia*, Bishoy Galoaa*, Oliver Fritsche, Shahid Kamal, Muhammad Obaidullah Abdul Salam, Umer Saleem, Om Rastogi, Frania Felix Chettiar, Nesli Erdoğmuş, Sarah Ostadabbas

*Equal contribution

Northeastern University

Abstract

A video large language model can watch two clips of the same person in the same room and name every object in both, yet fail to tell you which one moves faster, which way a hand travels, or how hard a door is shut. That gap matters because Video‑LLMs are increasingly the perceptual front end of world models: auto‑labeling state transitions, acting as reward and success detectors for model‑based RL, grounding instructions in what an agent sees. Each of those roles presupposes a competence at reading motion that, we show, these models do not have.

MotionBlind is a contrastive, minimal‑pairs benchmark of self‑recorded clip pairs that are near‑identical except in motion, each paired with two complementary yes/no questions, so a model must answer all four items correctly (Instance Accuracy, I_Acc) to score the instance. Single‑frame, appearance and language‑only shortcuts all collapse toward the 6.25% chance floor. It complements TimeBlind with physically grounded categories (speed, magnitude, direction) that are hard to source and label from uncontrolled internet video but are precisely the variables a world model must predict.

Across two suites we run a controlled study of six open Video‑LLMs and two frontier models over frame budgets 1–24 and four frame‑selection strategies. Open models sit near the chance floor; a larger model does no better; and neither more frames nor dynamic selection, which changes which frames are seen and not whether motion is read, closes the gap. The task genuinely needs video in the right order: removing it zeroes every model, and shuffling frames collapses accuracy to chance. Only Gemini 3.1 Pro clears the benchmark overall, yet it too fails on the purely rate‑defined categories.

TODO: the arXiv URL.

The contrastive design

One instance is two near‑identical clips × two opposed questions = four binary items. The clips differ only in motion; the questions are logical opposites. A model must get all four items right to score the instance.

Q1: “walking right?”
Q2: “walking left?”
Clip A person walks →
Yes
No
Clip B person walks ←
No
Yes
One instance. Same room, same person, same objects; only the direction of motion differs. A model scores the instance only if it gets all four cells right. Any strategy that leans on static appearance or on language priors (naming the objects, guessing the likely action) is driven to the 6.25% chance floor, because the diagonal gold pattern cannot be satisfied without reading the motion.

That structure is what makes the chance floors so unforgiving, and why a headline accuracy near 50% means nothing on its own:

MetricChanceWhy
Acc50%per‑item coin flip on a balanced yes/no set
Q_Acc / V_Acc25%correct on both members of a pair = (½)²
I_Acc6.25%all four items of an instance correct = (½)⁴
An I_Acc of 6% is not “6% of the way there.” It is exactly what a model that cannot distinguish the two clips scores. Because the four items of an instance are logically locked together, per‑item Acc near 50% is fully compatible with I_Acc of zero, which is why we lead with the instance‑level number.

What the benchmark is made of

Sixty contrastive instances over 82 self‑recorded clips. Every category is physical/kinematic: exactly the axis that is hard to source and label from uncontrolled internet video, and directly controllable in a lab. All clips are self‑recorded with object, scene and background held fixed across each pair, so the contrast isolates the motion property under test; and every relative‑characteristic instance compares two moving references, so each question is well‑posed from the clips alone rather than depending on an unstated calibration of what counts as fast or hard.

240
yes/no questions
60
contrastive 2×2 instances
82
self-recorded clips
4
motion characteristics
speed: 7 instances (12%) · 12 clips, 28 items 7 speed magnitude: 27 instances (45%) · 30 clips, 108 items 27 magnitude direction (translational): 18 instances (30%) · 28 clips, 72 items 18 direction (translational) direction (rotational): 8 instances (13%) · 12 clips, 32 items 8 direction (rotational) MotionBlind 60 instances 82 clips 240 items
Category distribution. Direction is reported as its two subtypes: a straight‑line heading and a sense of rotation are different perceptual problems, and (as the per‑category results below show) models do not do equally well on them, so pooling them would hide the split.
CharacteristicInstancesClipsItems
speed71228
magnitude2730108
direction (translational)182872
direction (rotational)81232
total6082240

Each clip pair also carries one to three question levels over identical footage: the directly visible kinematic difference (which motion is faster, farther, in which direction), the inferred dynamic cause (for appearance‑matched objects, which was pushed harder), and a chained deduction (more distance in equal time implies faster). Sharing the same clips, these levels localize a failure to perception, to inference, or to the link between them, rather than to a single conflated score.

How it differs from TimeBlind

Both suites share the same 2×2 protocol and the same yes/no format, but they ask about different things: MotionBlind's questions turn on how a motion is performed, TimeBlind's on what changes and when. That shows up directly in the vocabulary.

farther · MotionBlindfarther strip · TimeBlindstrip how · TimeBlindhow cup · MotionBlindcup ball · MotionBlindball push · MotionBlindpush clockwise · MotionBlindclockwise turns · TimeBlindturns faster · MotionBlindfaster bottom · TimeBlindbottom roll · TimeBlindroll slower · MotionBlindslower away · MotionBlindaway spun · MotionBlindspun closer · MotionBlindcloser color · TimeBlindcolor gradually · TimeBlindgradually yellow · TimeBlindyellow magnitude · MotionBlindmagnitude counter · MotionBlindcounter over · TimeBlindover turn · TimeBlindturn left · TimeBlindleft right · TimeBlindright top · TimeBlindtop racket · TimeBlindracket toy · MotionBlindtoy pen · MotionBlindpen further · MotionBlindfurther smaller · TimeBlindsmaller larger · TimeBlindlarger drawer · MotionBlinddrawer pulled · MotionBlindpulled walking · MotionBlindwalking less · MotionBlindless getting · MotionBlindgetting person's · MotionBlindperson's book · TimeBlindbook spinning · TimeBlindspinning car · MotionBlindcar sink · MotionBlindsink

MotionBlind (240 questions) TimeBlind (2,400 questions)

Words most characteristic of each benchmark's questions (size = dominance). MotionBlind (orange) turns on manner, magnitude and direction of motion: faster, slower, farther, closer, clockwise. TimeBlind (aqua) on appearance and state change: color, turns, top/bottom, gradually. Hover a word to pick it out.
Show
Question embedding (Qwen2.5-VL-7B · class-mean axis) (AUC 0.97) TimeBlind MotionBlind web-collected subset TimeBlind MotionBlind MotionBlind − TimeBlind axis
Where the two question sets sit relative to each other. Every unique question embedded with the evaluated models' own Qwen2.5‑VL‑7B text tower (mean‑pooled) and projected onto the axis between the two benchmarks' mean embeddings, with the leading residual variation on the vertical. Though both share the same yes/no video‑QA format, MotionBlind's questions occupy a distinct region, and the two are linearly separable at AUC 0.97. TimeBlind's lower‑left lobe is its web‑collected subset; that is an annotation on the region, not a per‑question label — the figure carries geometry only.
Read a cloud for its vocabulary, not its magnitudes. Size here encodes glyph area, which is confounded with word length: you cannot tell from the picture whether farther is twice closer or ten times it. What it is good for is the thing this figure is making: the two lists are about different subjects.

Results: open models fail, one frontier model breaks away

Each model's best cell across its full sweep (3–5 samplers × 5–6 frame budgets), scored on all 60 instances. These are best cells chosen post hoc, so they are optimistic by construction. Ties on I_Acc are broken toward uniform sampling and then the largest budget: the configuration that gave the model the most to work with, so a tie is never resolved in the benchmark's favour.

0 20 40 60 80 100 MotionBlind I_Acc (%) Human Human · I_Acc: 91.3 91.3 (5 annotators) Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro · I_Acc: 60.0 60.0 GPT-5.6 GPT-5.6 · I_Acc: 15.0 15.0 Eagle2.5-8B Eagle2.5-8B · I_Acc: 11.7 11.7 Inkling-Small Inkling-Small · I_Acc: 10.0 10.0 Qwen3-VL-4B Qwen3-VL-4B · I_Acc: 8.3 8.3 Motion-o (7B) Motion-o (7B) · I_Acc: 6.7 6.7 Gemma-4-12B-it * Gemma-4-12B-it · I_Acc: 3.6 3.6 Molmo2-8B Molmo2-8B · I_Acc: 3.3 3.3 chance 6.25

open weights frontier proprietary human

MotionBlind Instance Accuracy at each model's best configuration. Colour marks the model class, not identity: every bar is named on its own row, so five open models never need five hues. The dashed rule is the 6.25% chance floor.
 Gemma‑4‑12B‑it was evaluated on a representative 56‑instance subset of the 60, so its bar is not 1:1 comparable with the others.
Model MotionBlind TimeBlind Video‑MME
Acc ↑
I_Acc ↑Acc ↑ I_Acc ↑Acc ↑
Chance6.2550.06.2550.025.0
Open Video‑LLMs
Eagle2.5‑8B11.758.824.266.565.4
Inkling‑Small 10.057.1
Qwen3‑VL‑4B8.358.324.765.359.7
Motion‑o (7B) 6.755.416.361.058.2
Gemma‑4‑12B‑it 3.652.270.3
Molmo2‑8B3.354.212.259.060.9
Frontier proprietary
Gemini 3.1 Pro60.080.848.2 §76.278.2
GPT‑5.6 15.062.146.377.374.8
Human 91.397.898.299.387.9

 evaluated on a representative 56‑instance subset (224 questions); not 1:1 comparable.  reasoning model, evaluated with reasoning disabled to match the benchmark's no‑CoT convention.  motion‑tuned Qwen2.5‑VL‑7B.  GPT‑5.6 (Luna) at 720×1280, detail=high. § TimeBlind's own published best over 20+ frontier MLLMs, not our run.  mean of 5 annotators (60 instances each, range 85–97 I_Acc); TimeBlind human from the TimeBlind paper.

Per‑item accuracy hides all of this. For the open models Acc sits in the 52–59% band even when I_Acc is at the floor: fluent guessing on a balanced yes/no set, not the ability to tell the two clips apart. That gap between Acc and I_Acc is the illusion the benchmark is named for. Note too that a larger model does not help: Gemma‑4‑12B‑it lands among the weakest.

Do the models read the video at all?

Four arms at a fixed budget of 16 frames. ordered, reversed and shuffled receive the identical frames: uniform sampling is deterministic, so only the sequence order changes. no‑video receives the question with no frames at all. Every contrast is exactly paired, so McNemar's exact test applies.

Reversal and shuffling are not the same probe. Shuffling destroys order; reversing inverts it, flipping the correct answer for every first/second and direction question. Scored against the original labels, a model that genuinely reads direction therefore lands below the 50% floor, so reversed is the only arm where failure is evidence of perception.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 percent I_Acc · ordered: 6.7 6.7 Acc · ordered: 56.7 56.7 ordered I_Acc · reversed: 0.0 0.0 Acc · reversed: 45.4 45.4 reversed I_Acc · shuffled: 0.0 0.0 Acc · shuffled: 50.0 50.0 shuffled I_Acc · no‑video: 0.0 0.0 Acc · no‑video: 50.0 50.0 no‑video I_Accchance 6.25

I_Acc (instance) Acc (per item)

Qwen3‑VL‑4B, uniform‑16, 240 items / 60 instances. The four arms (ordered, reversed, shuffled, no‑video) are the x‑axis groups; colour marks the measure, per the legend above. Only the ordered arm reaches chance at all; the other three sit at a hard zero.

The same collapse, across every model we could run it on

All four arms at the same matched 16‑frame budget, on the four models whose ablation cells we have. The pattern is not a Qwen quirk.

ModelOrdered ↑ShuffledReversedNo video
Eagle2.5‑8B10.00.00.00.0
Motion‑o (7B)6.70.00.00.0
Qwen3‑VL‑4B6.70.00.00.0
Molmo2‑8B1.70.01.7 0.0

All values are I_Acc (%) at uniform‑16 on all 60 instances; chance is 6.25.  a single instance out of 60, i.e. noise.

Withholding the video drops every model to exactly zero. Nothing here is solvable from the question text alone, and since shuffling lands in the same place, the modest competence these models do have is genuinely temporal. Destroy time or remove it, and the signal disappears entirely.

Scrambled frames are exactly as useful as no frames. The shuffled vs no‑video contrast returns b = 50, c = 50, p = 1.0000, a perfect tie, and both confusion matrices are exactly symmetric (24/24/96/96 and 32/32/88/88). Ordered beats shuffled at p = 0.0226. So temporal order carries real information, but not enough to lift a single instance above luck.

The reversed arm sits at 45.4% accuracy, below the 50% floor. That is the signature of a model tracking direction just well enough to be reliably wrong once the clip is played backwards.

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 I_Acc (%) MotionBlind · real order: 6.7 6.7 TimeBlind · real order: 27.0 27.0 real order MotionBlind · reversed: 0.0 0.0 TimeBlind · reversed: 7.0 7.0 reversed MotionBlind · shuffled: 0.0 0.0 TimeBlind · shuffled: 7.0 7.0 shuffled MotionBlind · no video: 0.0 0.0 TimeBlind · no video: 0.0 0.0 no video chance 6.25

MotionBlind (n=60) TimeBlind (n=600)

The same collapse on both benchmarks. Qwen3‑VL‑4B, uniform‑16. MotionBlind (n = 60 instances) in orange, TimeBlind (n = 600) in green; dashed line is the 6.25% chance floor.

TimeBlind starts far higher (27.0% I_Acc with real order, well above chance) and still falls to 7.0% under both reversal and shuffling, then to 0.0% with no video. MotionBlind never leaves the floor at all (6.7 → 0.0). The gap matters for what the benchmark is for: TimeBlind's event-ordering questions are partly answerable from semantics, so destroying order costs a lot but not everything. MotionBlind's contrastive pairs share every semantic cue by construction, which is why there is nothing left to lose.

Where the failure lives

Breaking I_Acc down by motion characteristic localizes the failure. It is not that the models are uniformly blind to time: they specifically fail to encode how fast and how far, exactly the kinematics a world model must predict.

Gemini 3.1 Pro Eagle2.5-8B Qwen3-VL-4B Motion-o (7B) Molmo2-8B speed 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Gemini 3.1 Pro · speed: 14.3 Eagle2.5-8B · speed: 0.0 Qwen3-VL-4B · speed: 0.0 Motion-o (7B) · speed: 0.0 Molmo2-8B · speed: 0.0 magnitude 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Gemini 3.1 Pro · magnitude: 48.1 Eagle2.5-8B · magnitude: 0.0 Qwen3-VL-4B · magnitude: 0.0 Motion-o (7B) · magnitude: 0.0 Molmo2-8B · magnitude: 0.0 dir. translational 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Gemini 3.1 Pro · dir. translational: 77.8 Eagle2.5-8B · dir. translational: 33.3 Qwen3-VL-4B · dir. translational: 22.2 Motion-o (7B) · dir. translational: 22.2 Molmo2-8B · dir. translational: 5.6 dir. rotational 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Gemini 3.1 Pro · dir. rotational: 50.0 Eagle2.5-8B · dir. rotational: 0.0 Qwen3-VL-4B · dir. rotational: 0.0 Motion-o (7B) · dir. rotational: 0.0 Molmo2-8B · dir. rotational: 0.0 I_Acc (%) at uniform-16

frontier proprietary open weights

Per‑category I_Acc at a matched uniform‑16 budget. All four panels share one 0–80 range and one row axis, so a bar's length means the same thing everywhere; per‑panel scaling would redraw four floors as four different‑looking results. The dashed rule in each panel is the 6.25% chance floor. Category sizes differ (speed has 7 instances, magnitude 27), so one instance is worth 14.3 points in the speed panel and 3.7 in the magnitude panel.
For every open model, speed and magnitude sit at a hard zero. Direction (translational) is the only category carrying any signal at all: 22–33% for Eagle, Qwen3‑VL and Motion‑o. Gemini 3.1 Pro is the exception, clearing chance on three of four categories, yet it too drops to 14.3% on speed: the one quantity defined purely by rate. A reward model that cannot tell a gentle placement from a forceful slam supplies noisy or inverted supervision on precisely the physical variables that matter most.

More frames help, then plateau far below solving

Since the models are order‑sensitive, does simply showing more of the clip help? Only up to a point, and that point is far below competence.

0 5 10 15 I_Acc (%) Eagle2.5-8B · 1 frames: 0.0 Eagle2.5-8B · 4 frames: 6.7 Eagle2.5-8B · 8 frames: 10.0 Eagle2.5-8B · 16 frames: 10.0 Eagle2.5-8B · 24 frames: 11.7 Qwen3-VL-4B · 1 frames: 0.0 Qwen3-VL-4B · 4 frames: 6.7 Qwen3-VL-4B · 8 frames: 8.3 Qwen3-VL-4B · 16 frames: 6.7 Qwen3-VL-4B · 24 frames: 3.3 Motion-o (7B) · 1 frames: 0.0 Motion-o (7B) · 4 frames: 0.0 Motion-o (7B) · 8 frames: 5.0 Motion-o (7B) · 16 frames: 6.7 Motion-o (7B) · 24 frames: 6.7 Molmo2-8B · 1 frames: 0.0 Molmo2-8B · 4 frames: 1.7 Molmo2-8B · 8 frames: 1.7 Molmo2-8B · 16 frames: 1.7 Molmo2-8B · 24 frames: 3.3 chance 6.25 1 4 8 16 24 frames sent Gemini 3.1 Pro 60.0 and Human 91.3 are off this scale ↑

Eagle2.5‑8B Qwen3‑VL‑4B Motion‑o (7B) Molmo2‑8B

MotionBlind I_Acc vs. frame budget, uniform sampling. The y‑axis is truncated at 15%: Gemini 3.1 Pro (60.0) and the human ceiling (91.3) are annotated rather than plotted, because including them would compress every open model into a single flat line at the axis and hide the rise‑then‑plateau that is the actual finding. Accuracy rises with N and saturates by N = 16–24; Eagle plateaus near 12% and the rest at or below 8%.
Frames are a lever with a hard stop. They let the model see more of a motion it still cannot represent. Qwen3‑VL‑4B does not even plateau: it peaks at 8.3% on 8 frames and declines to 3.3% at 24: past a point, more frames push the model toward a constant answer rather than toward reading motion.

GPT-5.6: the same shape at the frontier

Selection is frozen in a first stage and replayed in a second, so every cell differs only in which indices were chosen, so a re‑run is bit‑identical.

0 5 10 15 20 I_Acc (%) I_Acc uniform · 1 frames: 0.0 uniform · 4 frames: 15.0 uniform · 8 frames: 15.0 uniform · 16 frames: 11.7 uniform · 24 frames: 10.0 random · 1 frames: 1.7 random · 4 frames: 13.3 random · 8 frames: 15.0 random · 16 frames: 13.3 random · 24 frames: 13.3 hornet · 1 frames: 0.0 hornet · 4 frames: 6.7 hornet · 8 frames: 6.7 hornet · 16 frames: 8.3 hornet · 24 frames: 10.0 chance 6.25% 1 4 8 16 24 frames sent 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Acc (%) Acc uniform · 1 frames: 50.0 uniform · 4 frames: 58.8 uniform · 8 frames: 60.4 uniform · 16 frames: 55.8 uniform · 24 frames: 56.7 random · 1 frames: 52.1 random · 4 frames: 62.1 random · 8 frames: 60.8 random · 16 frames: 56.2 random · 24 frames: 57.1 hornet · 1 frames: 52.1 hornet · 4 frames: 52.9 hornet · 8 frames: 55.0 hornet · 16 frames: 54.6 hornet · 24 frames: 52.5 chance 50% 1 4 8 16 24 frames sent

uniform random HORNet

GPT‑5.6 (Luna) frame‑budget sweep, 3 samplers × 5 budgets. The same shape as the open models, one tier up: I_Acc peaks at N = 4–8 and declines thereafter, and no sampler separates from the others. More frames do not help.

Dynamic frame selection does not rescue it

If uniform sampling saturates, perhaps a smarter selector would spend the budget better. We compare uniform and random against a GRPO‑trained learned selector (HORNet) and a training‑free key‑clip selector (Frame2Clip), all at a matched 16‑frame budget.

0 5 10 15 20 25 I_Acc (%) at 16 frames Eagle2.5-8B MotionBlind · Uniform: 10.0 10.0 TimeBlind · Uniform: 21.3 21.3 Uniform MotionBlind · Random: 10.0 10.0 TimeBlind · Random: 22.7 22.7 Random MotionBlind · HORNet (GRPO): 8.3 8.3 TimeBlind · HORNet (GRPO): 20.0 20.0 HORNet MotionBlind · Frame2Clip: 1.7 1.7 Frame2Clip chance 6.25 0 5 10 15 20 25 I_Acc (%) at 16 frames Molmo2-8B MotionBlind · Uniform: 1.7 1.7 TimeBlind · Uniform: 10.3 10.3 Uniform MotionBlind · Random: 1.7 1.7 TimeBlind · Random: 9.8 9.8 Random MotionBlind · HORNet (GRPO): 1.7 1.7 TimeBlind · HORNet (GRPO): 12.0 12.0 HORNet MotionBlind · Frame2Clip: 1.7 1.7 TimeBlind · Frame2Clip: 8.0 8.0 Frame2Clip chance 6.25

MotionBlind (n=60) TimeBlind (n=600)

Frame selection at a matched 16‑frame budget. Both panels share one 0–25 range: they hold the same measure for two models, and per‑panel scaling would redraw Molmo2's flat 1.7 as a dramatic spread. Cells that were not run are labelled as such rather than drawn as a zero bar: a zero bar and an unrun cell look identical and mean opposite things.
Frame selection Eagle2.5‑8BMolmo2‑8B
MBTBMBTB
Uniform10.021.31.710.3
Random10.022.71.79.8
HORNet (GRPO)8.320.01.712.0
Frame2Clip1.7not run1.78.0
No strategy pushes Eagle above 10.0%, and Molmo2 stays pinned at 1.7% whatever it is shown. The learned selector actually underperforms plain uniform sampling on MotionBlind (10.0 → 8.3), while random merely matches it. The training‑free selector is worse still: Frame2Clip drops Eagle from 10.0 to 1.7, below the 6.25 chance floor, so the two adaptive methods bracket uniform from below rather than improving on it. Adaptive selection changes which frames are shown, not whether the model can read motion.
video 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 tap 1 tap 2 Uniform Uniform · frame 1: selected Uniform · frame 2: not selected Uniform · frame 3: not selected Uniform · frame 4: selected Uniform · frame 5: not selected Uniform · frame 6: not selected Uniform · frame 7: selected Uniform · frame 8: not selected Uniform · frame 9: not selected Uniform · frame 10: selected Uniform · frame 11: not selected Uniform · frame 12: not selected Random Random · frame 1: not selected Random · frame 2: selected Random · frame 3: selected Random · frame 4: not selected Random · frame 5: not selected Random · frame 6: not selected Random · frame 7: not selected Random · frame 8: selected Random · frame 9: not selected Random · frame 10: not selected Random · frame 11: selected Random · frame 12: not selected HORNet HORNet · frame 1: not selected HORNet · frame 2: not selected HORNet · frame 3: not selected HORNet · frame 4: not selected HORNet · frame 5: selected HORNet · frame 6: selected HORNet · frame 7: not selected HORNet · frame 8: selected HORNet · frame 9: selected HORNet · frame 10: not selected HORNet · frame 11: not selected HORNet · frame 12: not selected Frame2Clip Frame2Clip · frame 1: not selected Frame2Clip · frame 2: not selected Frame2Clip · frame 3: not selected Frame2Clip · frame 4: not selected Frame2Clip · frame 5: selected Frame2Clip · frame 6: selected Frame2Clip · frame 7: selected (reduced resolution) Frame2Clip · frame 8: selected (reduced resolution) Frame2Clip · frame 9: selected (reduced resolution) Frame2Clip · frame 10: selected (reduced resolution) Frame2Clip · frame 11: not selected Frame2Clip · frame 12: not selected

uniform random HORNet Frame2Clip clip anchor reduced resolution

What each strategy does, on a toy 12‑frame clip. The question asks whether an action happens twice, a count no single frame can settle. Shaded bands mark the two events; filled cells are the frames a policy returns. Frame2Clip places an anchor and grows it into one contiguous clip, paying for the extra frames by dropping their resolution. This panel is a schematic, as it is in the paper. The frame browser below shows the real selections.

The learned selector offers no lever here for a diagnosable reason, and the rest of this section is that diagnosis.

Why the selector has nothing to select on

Each clip contains two episodes of the same action at different speeds, and the question compares them. Frame‑differencing separates the two halves cleanly: mean absolute difference between consecutive frames is 1.6–1.7× higher in the fast half, and recovers the gold answer on both clips. The signal is present in the pixels.

What the model actually receives. Ten instances spanning all four motion characteristics. Pick one: the two clips are near‑identical and the gold answers are opposite, so any strip you cannot tell apart is one the model cannot either.

Instance i00 speed

Each panel stacks the three samplers (uniform, random, HORNet) at 8 frames each, replayed from the frozen selections the eval actually sent. Hover a frame to find it on the timeline, or a tick to find its frame; the gaps between ticks are the sampling problem.

A stirring cycle is 15–30 frames. Uniform sampling steps over two to three complete cycles between samples: the classic below‑Nyquist case, where a fast cycle and a slow cycle produce identical sample sequences. Across all three samplers there is almost nowhere that two frames land close enough together to measure a rate.

This makes the failure specific: it is a sampling failure, not a signal failure. Samplers are built to maximise coverage, which is precisely the wrong objective for a question about rate.

The burst arm has now run, and it does not rescue the claim. Frames‑to‑Clips (f2cfull) samples contiguous bursts rather than spreading frames evenly, so it should beat uniform on a rate question. On Gemini‑3‑Pro it does the opposite: 30.0% I_Acc at 32 frames against uniform's 60.0% at 24. It also saturates: the 8, 16 and 32‑frame cells select byte‑identical frames on all 240 items (~2.3 frames per item), which is why the curve is flat from 8 onward. Under‑sampling the cycle is real, but contiguity alone is not the fix.

What this does and does not show

MotionBlind's 60 self‑recorded instances trade scale for controlled isolation of physical variables, so every number here carries small‑sample variance: one instance is 1.7 points of I_Acc, and 14.3 points inside the 7‑instance speed category. All clips feature a single actor indoors, leaving in‑the‑wild and egocentric generalization open. Constrained yes/no parsing removes free‑form ambiguity but may understate reasoning a model cannot verbalize in binary form. Our open‑weight models span ≤12B parameters, so we cannot fully separate architectural from scale limits, though a larger model not closing the gap is suggestive.

All video was collected with the participant's informed consent, faces are automatically blurred prior to release, and the dataset contains no sensitive or personally identifiable information.

Reproducing

The dataset is on the Hugging Face Hub:

from datasets import load_dataset

ds = load_dataset("augmentedcognitionlab/MotionBlind")

BibTeX

To be added.